Change your betting style during the season

There is a very thin line between the different periods in a football season, which anyone who deals with betting on football matches should know very well. I talk about the first few months of the season and the last month before the end of the championships. Many punters believe that these two periods are the time to back the stronger teams against the weaker ones. Their arguments for major championships like the Premier League in England, La Liga in Spain and so on are related to the fact that the teams aren’t involved in European tournaments yet, they are not hindered by injuries of the key players and all of their players return from holidays and are keen to play.

However, when we talk about the favorites’matches from other leagues like Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Serbia and so on the betting specialists say there the favourite’s bettingadvantage is even more pronounced. The teams participate in European tournaments and their preparation is aligned so that they should be in top form just as the last play preliminary rounds of the tournament. Ultimately, the entry into the main draw in European tournaments means winning of millions of euros in the vaults of the clubs. That’s why those teams are stronger in August and can easily be supported.

Another highlight comes at the end of the season. Then the short bench of the weaker teams begins to say its word. Injuries of important players are more easily overcome by the larger teams which have equal number of players for each position. In smaller teams, however a long-term injury to one or another key player could be the difference between the salvation and relegation to a lower division. Just because of fatigue after the long season and injuries at the end of the season once again it’s time to bet on the favourites to win over the other teams.

So, to summarize. If you have a betting strategy to support and rely on strong favourites, do it in August and early September. Another period in which again you can have a good chance supporting the favourites is April – May.

Think about it and until you do it take a look on the video below with some of the best goals in Champions League for the season 2011/12

Betting on Goal/No goal

A few months ago I decided to make a curious betting study. It was connected with betting on goal/no goal market and the matches between the favourite and the underdog. Goal /no goal bets are offered by almost all bookmakers, where the player is required to predict whether a match will end with goals for both teams or just one of them would score. If both teams score, then you have a winning bet – goal. If only one of them manages to score or the game finishes 0-0 then the winning bet would be no goal.

The game of this betting option in matches between a strong favourite and an underdog is curious, because most of the people would expect that thebetting on goal/no goal match will end with only goals in the net of the underdog. It turns out that it’s not true and the underdogs, even much weaker than their opponents often find the net.

However, does this happen often enough to find value in this type of betting? This is a question whose answer I‘ll seek now.

Lately, I’ve adopted the practice of recording all my betting hypotheses and related to them results in excel files. Because of that when I wanted to check this betting option it was very easy for me to check on nearly two hundred already played games between a strong favourite and a complete outsider. From a total of 190 such matches played in the last two months, it appears that just 85 finish with goal/goal and the rest are with goals scored only by one of the teams. Of course, in almost all cases it was the favourite team.

Usually the odds for the goal/goal betting option on the matches with very pronounced favourites are between 2 and 2.1. A simple calculation shows that these coefficients make the task to find value simply impossible. It is the same with the opposite goal/no goal since the odds are rarely more than 1.72 and that would give us a ROI of 90% or in other words, you will lose exactly 10% of your bank.

Definitely betting on goal/no goal with severe favourites is precisely allocated by the betting houses and the margin of bookmakers appears crucial.

For all the fans here is a list of best goals for the season 2011/12:

Southampton vs Wigan – Over 2.5 goals

Southampton and Wigan are two teams in the Premier League that lost their first matches last weekend. Both teams, however, won’t suffer much from these losses because they came respectively from the champion Manchester City and from the winner of the last Champions League Chelsea. What unites these two teams is the fact that Southampton and Wigan performed more than well against their strong rivals and it wasn’t so obvious which teams are worth hundreds of millions of pounds and which teams will be fighting to escape the relegation from the Championship.

Wigan lost to Chelsea at home with 0-2, but created three times more goal attempts than their opponent. Just the wonderful game of Petr Cech and the defenders in front of him didn’t betting predictionallow to tie the match after a goal by the hosts.
Southampton scored two to the champions and although they conceded three in their net they were pretty close to the success. Furthermore, the team really created many goal attempts and at times it was just the pure luck of their opponents not to concede.

So the both teams are united by the loss they suffered in the first round and by the great game and the many goal attempts they made. That’s why I find it very strange that the odds offered from the betting houses for this match to end with over 2.5 scored goals are so high. This bet is currently available of about 1.9 or 1.95 on different betting houses, which is just great.

The two teams haven’t played in the last 10 years against each other, so it’s hard to make a comparison between them. This makes the bet a little insecure. However, I think the chances for more goals in this game are high enough or at least higher than 1.9 suggested by the betting houses. So I would bet my money on an Over here. Crossing fingers for many goals and fascinating football between these two.